Bloomsbury blog Navigating noise in the New Year

Bloomsbury blog post, 20 January 2026

At the start of each year, financial news outlets churn out predictions and forecasts for the next 12 months. Commentators, bankers, and brokers make bold headlines about where markets will go. People try to predict which markets will grow, which companies will succeed, and how we should invest to get a good return.

This is all noise. This year, one of your resolutions should be to tune out the noise and stick to your long-term plan. Let's examine some notable predictions from early 2025 to see whether they offered true insight or added to the new year noise.

Broken crystal balls

Finance giants JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs forecast a 9% and 10% return in 2025 for the S&P500 respectively. As of early December 2025, the S&P500 index is up 16% year-to-date (YTD). US equities strongly outperformed expectations, but the miss was even more glaring internationally. JP Morgan forecast modest returns of 4-5% for the UK, Europe, and Emerging Markets. However, in 2025 these markets surged, with the UK's FTSE100 up 17%, the Eurozone up 36% and Emerging Markets up 33%. The experts missed the mark by a significant margin.

If two of the largest financial institutions in the world, with vast resources and experts across the globe, can't accurately predict what financial markets will do, it seems unlikely anyone can. Here in New Zealand, Newsroom asked local sharebrokers and wealth management firms in January 2025 for the top five companies New Zealanders should invest in for 2025. Newsroom reported the top five companies picked were Amazon, Novo Nordisk, Visa, Zoetis, and Summerset. So, what happened to the share prices of these companies this year?

1. Amazon – up 6.5% YTD
2. Novo Nordisk – down 52% YTD
3. Visa – up 4.8% YTD
4. Zoetis – up 23.5% YTD
5. Summerset – down 5.5% YTD

Against the backdrop of strong market growth in 2025, only Zoetis outperformed the market. Novo Nordisk's value halved this year! The danger isn't just in missing out on gains, it's the risk of catastrophic loss. While global markets marched higher this year, a concentrated bet on Novo Nordisk would have halved your capital. Even if you held an equally weighted portfolio of these five shares over 2025, you would have suffered a return of -4.5%, massively underperforming market indices like the S&P500, which returned 16% year-to-date.

Tune out to build wealth

Short-term market forecasts and share price picks are effectively a shot in the dark. Sometimes they'll be right, sometimes they'll be wrong – there's no way to know until after the fact. Investors are better off ignoring the forecasts of both global financial giants and local firms. Instead of predictions, we emphasise financial discipline and long-term, time-tested, systematic investing strategies.

A new year often leads to new noise. Investors would do better to ignore predictions and forecasts. As Of Dollars and Data says: "Turn Off, Tune Out, Get Rich".

Financial success isn't about guessing what the market will do next year; it's about having a portfolio robust enough to handle whatever happens and sticking with your plan through the ups and downs. This year – let's make sure your investment plan remains focused on your goals, instead of worrying about the noise.